Projections as of March 24, 2023. Elo wins are based on a regressed version of 2022′s final Elo ratings.

Women account for less than 4 percent of fatal police shootings, but according to our analysis of the Post’s data, almost 20 percent of the women fatally shot by police are Black, even though ...

Brooklyn’s Big Three of Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Kevin Durant have barely shared the court this season. There’s just one catch for the Nets: Their top-scoring trio — the one that has ...

Apportionment, or the process of determining the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives, happens like clockwork at this point. Every 10 years, the Census Bureau counts ...

Largest delegate percentage reflects the largest number of delegate votes won by the former president on a ballot for the presidential nomination, out of the total number of delegate votes at the ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

It used to be, if you wanted to see a Poweshiek skipperling butterfly, the thing to do was go out on the prairie and stare into the middle distance, like you were trying to see a sailboat buried ...

Vote margin calculated based on the two-party vote, which uses just the Democratic and Republican vote totals. Together, the share of the statewide vote and the benchmark margins produce a 50-50 ...

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, might not have any credibility as a pollster in FiveThirtyEight’s rating system, but he’s a pollster ...

It may not be a presidential or midterm election year, but 2021 has its fair share of important votes happening on Tuesday. Virginia’s gubernatorial election is clearly the most noteworthy race ...

But trying to distinguish the effects of only one type of restriction, like voter ID requirements, is challenging because a new election law rarely changes only one voting provision. “The actual ...

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans ...