We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade. We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession ...

We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the tariff measures announced (but not entirely implemented yet) on Liberation Day (April 2nd, 2025) through the lens of a New-Keynesian two-country model ...

Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the ...

We use a dynamic trade and reallocation model with downward nominal wage rigidities to quantitatively assess the economic consequences of recent U.S. tariff increases on imports from Mexico, Canada, ...

What is the optimal macroeconomic tariff when trade is imbalanced and the policy objectives go beyond social welfare and also include fiscal revenues, increasing the number of manufacturing jobs, and ...

We evaluate the aggregate effects of a change in tariffs on the US and world economies when tariff revenue is used to enact fiscal reform. Our model combines a standard international model of fiscal ...

We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched ...

On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared “Liberation Day,” announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs ...

Why have white, less educated voters left the Democratic Party over the past few decades? Scholars have proposed ethnocentrism, social issues and deindustrialization as potential answers. We highlight ...